!Cognitive biases of the different stakeholders : Don't blame the data
As product managers, we rely heavily on gathering data in order to make product and business-related decisions. But even with the best intentions at heart, many times our decision-making is affected by inherent biases and preconceived notions - not by empirical data.
This is a universal pain across organizations.
In this talk, we will reveal the most prominent cognitive biases and explore mitigation tips to make better data-driven decisions. From Sales to Marketing and from Support to Dev we'll dive into each stakeholder, cover the most painful bias, explore how it affects the product, and how to deal with them.
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Saturday, 30 November 2024 17:47 posted by รูปพวงหรีดแสดงความเสียใจฟรี
Bright and early, my old friend, the beauty and wellness
entrepreneur Liz Earle, is standing at my
door clutching a Kilner jar with what looks like a small sponge floating in murky water.
'I made kombucha for you,' she says with an enthusiasm I don't entirely share.
(The sponge, it turns out, is the Scoby, or 'symbiotic culture of bacteria
and yeast', which is what's used to ferment sweetened tea to
make kombucha. I don't realise at the time, but this hideous thing takes
weeks to develop and is in fact a very generous gift.)
The truth is, I'd drink (almost) anything if it gave me Liz's zip.
At 61, a mother of five and a new grandmother, she honestly looks 20 years younger.
Fans of her YouTube channel and her 170,000 Instagram followers
will know how bright and smooth her skin is, but in person she is fizzing with energy,
too.
Liz and I have been friends for 25 years - over which time she has somehow seemed to
gain in vitality as I, nine years her junior, have...
well, deflated.
Beauty and wellness entrepreneur Liz Earle, right, and Beatrice Aidin met back
in the 1990s when they were both beauty journalists
So here's my plan. I am going to Live Like
Liz for a full eight weeks, morning to night, to see just how much I, too,
can turn back the clock.
I am going to eat, drink and exercise like Liz, 'ground myself' in a flower bed in my pyjamas like her,
and even tape up my mouth à la Liz. From
my gut to my hormones, my brain to the very cells of my skin, I will follow the 'bio-hacks' set out in her new book A Better Second Half: Dial Back Your Age To Live A Longer, Healthier, Happier Life, which swiftly became a
bestseller on its release this year.
Liz says it can't fail, so long as I commit to it.
'Who's to say we can't or shouldn't change the way we age?' she asks.
'I was stronger, fitter and more capable in my 50s than I was in my 40s, so
why can't I be even more so in my 60s, 70s and beyond?'
Perhaps more significantly, after the 'car crash of emotional
wreckage' caused by the breakdown of her second marriage, and the
divorce she went through in 2020, she now says: 'I'm happier at
61 than I was at 40.'
Career-wise, it shows. When we met back in the 1990s we were both beauty journalists.
At launches for new products, I'd merrily down the free Krug
while Liz sipped sparkling water. 'Ah Bea, you were the yin to my yang,'
she says.
Now, her wellness empire has mushroomed... and I'm suffering major work anxiety, a not-unrelated financial crisis and severe sciatica.
Frankly, I look and feel knackered. My skin is dull and I have dark circles under my eyes.
Physical pain interferes with my sleep, and I've been turning rather too readily to
the sauvignon blanc to help me nod off.
Food is not a priority: I'm either not interested or craving sugar, which means I'm a good 10lb heavier than I should be.
So, can living like my rather fabulous friend make me
feel as young as she looks? More to the point - can I really
stick to it, kombucha and all?
'Come on Bea, get off your backside!' Liz demands...
Liz (left) puts Beatrice through her paces
in the gym. Beatrice needs extra help with exercise because of
her sciatica
Week one: I face up to my middle-age spread
Liz's top-line diet philosophy is high-protein, low carb,
meaning she's a fan of lots of foods I love but didn't think I should eat:
butter, unprocessed meat, avocados, good quality cheese, taramasalata
and thick Greek yoghurt.
High protein helps us 'shift to a leaner, more toned shape, and lose that middle-aged
spread,' she says.
Timing matters. Liz eats two meals a day - brunch around 11am and dinner at 7pm.
The order matters too: clear your plate of chicken before rice,
because eating protein before carbs keeps blood sugar levels stable.
In recent years she has increased her coffee intake (before 2pm) because studies show
four to five cups is 'strongly associated with living longer' thanks to the bioactives in coffee beans such
as chlorogenic acid.
She eats wheatgerm, soya beans and nuts to up her intake of spermidine -
a dietary molecule that interacts with our DNA and mimics an anti-ageing process called autophagy, which de-ages us at a cellular level.
Alcohol is basically a no-no. Liz has the 'occasional glass' of wine or tequila,
but never more than two and never alone.
I chuck out the ready meals and plonk, roll up my sleeves
and start cooking from scratch. I grill venison,
roast a chicken and make soups with the leftovers.
Eating at specific times works for me - I'm never very hungry first thing - and enjoying the protein part of each
meal first means I'm fuller and find it easy to cut
back on my carb portions.
Gut health is a big focus, which means more fermented
foods. Much to my surprise, I love the kombucha and soon start to
brew my own using Liz's Scoby. But homemade kimchi - fermented veg - is a
harder sell. When a lunch guest asks me why I'm forcing myself to eat something I
dislike so much, I reply solemnly: 'Liz told me to.'
Week two: I discover I can do only 3 press-ups
I really need help with exercise because sciatica means my normal routine has gone to pot.
Thankfully, Liz reckons just ten minutes a day of exercises
such as squats, lunges and press-ups is more valuable in the long term
than a high-intensity gym session once a week or a long park run.
She introduces me to her personal trainer, Michael Garry, who
delivers the (bombshell, but welcome) news that running any distance over 5k
can 'start to have negative effects' on our immune system and bone strength.
If you're a runner, make it harder by speeding up your time, not increasing your
distance.
At Michael's insistence, I consult a physio about my sciatica, and
then he devises a daily regime for me. I try press-ups and make it to three.
Mortifying. Perseverance is clearly key. As are weights,
especially in your 50s. 'The more muscle you have, the
more your bones are protected from osteoporosis, especially during midlife,' says Michael.
For cardio, says Beatrice, I keep swimming twice a week. But instead of plodding up and down the pool, I start
to compete with myself, speeding up the laps
For my slack and flabby upper arms, he advises shoulder presses and hammer curls,
with 3kg weights in both hands. I try tricep
dips off a chair, and quickly find I can increase my
reps - until by week four I'm doing two sets of 15.
I work out three times a week at home. At first the routine takes
40 minutes but the more I do, the faster I do it,
until the whole thing - stretching, press-ups, weights - takes just 20 minutes.
For cardio, I keep swimming twice a week. But instead of plodding up and down the pool,
I start to compete with myself, speeding up the laps.
Week three: I slow the hormonal roller coaster
I'm menopausal and already on HRT, but I know I
could improve how I feel, which is sluggish and foggy.
Liz introduces me to something called the 'estrobolome' - the specific collection of bacteria
in the gut that influences how our body uses oestrogen. Put simply, some
microbes improve the efficiency with which oestrogen reaches tissues around the body, meaning we use
our dwindling supplies more effectively.
The best way to support your estrobolome is by eating fibre from veg, seeds
and nuts, plus some of the low-sugar fruits such as apples, berries and plums.
Back to the supermarket I go.
To boost the happy hormone serotonin, my saintly mentor insists
I finish my morning shower with a minimum 60-second blast of
icy cold water, resulting - she claims - in a 'post-shock high' and 'genuine glow'.
Hmmm. I find it hard to relinquish the comfort of a hot shower and feel not happy but mutinous as I step out of the bathroom shivering.
Week four: I stand in the flower bed
Living Like Liz means getting outside first thing in the morning and standing barefoot on the grass.
'Grounding' apparently enables electrons from the surface
of the Earth to transmit deep into the body, 'where they have an anti-inflammatory effect'.
Liz tells me she does this in the tranquil grounds of her
glorious pile in the West Country. I do it in a flower bed in my
shared patio, still in my pyjamas, and feel, well, very self-conscious.
Later I graduate to the park, and - look away now - tread in dog mess,
which does not improve my emotional wellbeing.
She also encourages us to keep a Five Minute Gratitude Journal twice a day.
'Gratitude is... a superpower that improves longevity and supports the immune system,' she says.
I can't help but think my better-off mate has rather a lot more
to smile about than me but, following instructions,
I write down three things I am grateful for every morning, and every
night a short list of 'good things' that happened
that day, plus another (longer) list of 'things that are concerning me'.
My scepticism around gratitude slowly lifts as I find it does make
me realise what's important and what's not. It helps me see that things
are a lot brighter than I thought. Packing in a rush for a weekend away, I can't find
my journal and am surprised by how bereft I feel without it.
Week five: I start to sleep well
I'm a night owl - I stay up too late watching TV and end up hitting my snooze button past 8.30am...
and occasionally edging towards 10am.
Liz reckons anyone can improve their sleep if they follow her routine,
which means setting an evening alarm for 9pm
- to remind yourself to start 'winding down for bed'.
Emails, social media and TV are switched off, replaced by a printed book or a
podcast. She takes 120g of magnesium glycinate in a milky
drink half an hour before bed (and stops eating two hours before).
Living Like Liz means getting outside first thing in the morning
Liz wears a bamboo fibre nightie or pyjamas to keep warm because she sleeps with an open window, which she covers with blackout blinds and curtains, and
sprinkles her pillow with a few drops of neat lavender essential oil.
I'm an e-book reader, so already failing at this
routine. Still, I leave my phone charging in the kitchen and buy a regular alarm clock.
The lavender oil makes me sneeze, so I spray my
pillows with C. Atherley Geranium Spray instead.
Oh, and I tape my lips up - Liz shows me how when she delivers the kombucha.
Forcing yourself to breathe through your nose is said to promote more restful sleep.
All of this is time-consuming and takes practise,
but I find the ritual soothing. Five weeks in, I'm getting
to sleep earlier than I have for years - at 10.30pm after 20 minutes drop-off time -and
waking at 7.30am. How virtuous!
Week six: I crash off the wagon
I'm doing my best, but then I go for lunch with
a friend who chirpily suggests a glass of wine, which turns into a bottle.
And then a second. Later, with a daytime hangover, I
head to M&S and find reduced dauphinoise potatoes, which become
dinner.
Liz has got me on a blood sugar tracker called Lingo (£289 for two months - you jab a biosensor the
size and shape of a plastic bottle top into your upper
arm, and then link it to an app on your phone),
which shows a massive post-potato spike and then a huge slump, which makes me tired and irritable.
Who knew that such deliciousness had such a high glycaemic load?
I call Liz to 'fess up. 'I have the odd day when I lie in, eat too
much cake and drink too much tequila,' she says. 'But that's fine because
you then know what to do to put it right. It's not about being perfect.'
Phew!
Week seven: I tackle my financial mess
Re-reading my journal really helps here. By documenting what I was so worried about day by day, my perspective on it changes.
Here, in black and white, is a record of how I felt at the start of
this project and how I've evolved.
I've come unstuck - in a good way. I'm not going to pretend it's been easy because change is uncomfortable, but I realise there's simply nothing to be
gained from the worry spiral.
If freelance life is tough, and my income erratic, I'm going to do something about it.
Buoyed with the confidence that comes with action,
I apply for part-time admin jobs. As personal trainer Michael observes as we work out on Zoom, I wouldn't have done
this before. He's right. Finally I've started to take control.
Week eight: And the winner is...
So how have eight weeks of Living Like Liz changed me?
Physically, I'm in much better shape. I've lost 7 lb and taken an extraordinary 5 in off my waist and 11 in off my body as a whole.
Those three pathetic press-ups have become a whopping 40 per
workout, and the measly 3kg weights are now 6kg, meaning
I have proper bicep definition. The sleeveless tops will be coming out again this party season.
Read More
Our essential guide to beating back pain: What's causing your aches
My skin is clearer, eyes brighter and face more defined because I've reduced the carb-inducing bloat.
I'm sleeping better and feeling infinitely less anxious.
Most remarkably - and this is really life-changing - my sciatica is almost gone and
I can come off strong painkillers. I know sciatica can disappear of its own accord, but the timing is surely no coincidence.
All those exercises have strengthened the muscles around my spine and buttocks and I'm convinced it's done the
trick.
I meet Liz for lunch, nervous about whether she'll see a difference.
'Oh wow,' she says, taking a good look at her pupil.
'Those arms! You definitely look younger.'
We chat for a while and she adds: 'You also seem more content and optimistic.
You have an inner glow and a halo of positivity.'
Well, yes, she would say that, wouldn't she?
(Probably. Though Liz is known for her candour, so it's not a given.) 'I wasn't sure you were going to prioritise yourself enough and
commit,' she admits 'You weren't an easy nut to crack so
I'm thrilled.'
I'm delighted with my gold star. And I'm grateful to her, which is
one of the key lessons I've learned. Gratitude makes everything feel
better.
That - along with the kombucha, ice-cold showers (which I have learned to love) and the odd tequila - are the habits I'll
hold on to. But not (shudder!) the kimchi or flower beds.
As Liz says, everyone deserves to have a better second half - and if I can do it, anyone can.
A Better Second Half: Dial Back Your Age To
Live A Longer, Healthier, Happier Life, by Liz Earle (Hodder &
Stoughton, £22).
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Saturday, 30 November 2024 15:58 posted by 潮田洋一郎 資産
どうかすると丑松は自分の身体ですら自分のものゝやうには思はないで、何もかも忘れて、心一つに父の戒を憶出して見ることもあつた。 ちなみに、全体の半分近くが『宮廷女官チャングムの誓い(大長今)』『チェオクの剣(茶母)』『私の名前はキム・其時下女の袈裟治が台処の方から駈寄つて、丑松に一枚の名刺を渡した。
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Saturday, 30 November 2024 15:41 posted by 家計の金融資産に関する世論調査
伊沢と掃除当番のことで喧嘩になり、負けた際に「呪ってやる」と捨て台詞を吐くオカルトキャラ。 4月10日 - 皇太子御成婚慶祝番組(ご成婚祝賀パレード生中継を含む)をこの日、在京のKRT,NETや地方の各局と協力して、テレビ・自治行政局公務員部長『会計年度任用職員制度の適正な運用等について(通知),総行公
第 196号』(プレスリリース)総務省、2020-21-21。
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